In line with the 3G/BWA spectrum auction timetable, DoT has published the list of applicants for 3G/BWA spectrum. Notably, [1] there are more applicants for BWA vs 3G spectrum, [2] 9/11 existing 2G licensees (holding GSM spectrum) will vie to secure 3G spectrum i.e. no new foreign entrant in the fray, and [3] Five applicants for 3G spectrum (Aircel, BRTI, IDEA, RCOM and VOD-Essar) have also applied for BWA spectrum.

The potential clearing price for 3G spectrum for a service area based on its relative attractiveness in terms of subs base, ARPUs and revenue contribution. On our Mar – 11E wireless subs and population for India, the nationwide outlay of Rs66bn implies US$1.2/pop and US$1.9/sub. On our forecast, the government could raise Rs269bn (US$5.9bn) from 3G spectrum auction.

The surprisingly large list of applicants for BWA spectrum prompts us to marginally raise our forecast clearing price for one nationwide slot of BWA spectrum to Rs27.8bn (Rs26.4bn previously). On our forecast, the government could raise Rs84bn (US$1.8bn) from BWA spectrum auction.