Bharti Airtel, Vodafone India and Idea Cellular control over 66% of the Wireless Revenue Market Share [RMS] in India despite their being 8 to 10 operators in every circle. In some circles, the RMS is so skewed in favor of one of theme that they almost touch 50% [For example, Airtel in Karnataka has 46.8% RMS]. [All Data for Qrtr of June-2011]
Analyzing the Data that we have obtained from TRAI, Q2-11 gross revenues data indicates that Bharti has reversed its revenue market share decline trend in 2Q (increased revenue market share by 45 bps qoq to 30.8%) and gained the maximum incremental revenue market share in 2Q. Idea Cellular & Vodafone India continued to increase their revenue market share further by 17/17 bps qoq to 13.9%/21.7% respectively.
Tata DoCoMo market share was stable at 8.6%. Operators which lost further market share in 2Q11 are RCOM (down 77 bps) and BSNL (down 44 bps). Amongst non-incumbents, Aircel and Uninor increased their market share to 4.7% and 1.6% respectively.
Sunil Mittal’s Gain is Anil Ambani’s Loss
Bharti gained revenue market share in 10 circles (vs. 3 in 1Q) and lost market share in 12 circles (vs. 19 in 1Q). Bharti showed a strong double digit qoq revenue growth in Delhi, Kolkata, TN, Himachal and J&K in 2Q reversing its trend of steep decline in revenues in 1Q in these circles. We suspect this is mainly due to some reversal of intra-circle roaming arrangement on 2G.
RCOM, revenues declined 3% qoq as per TRAI data, versus company reported 3% qoq increase in wireless revenues. RCOM mgmt believes the reason for this is stronger growth in data revenues, which is not captured in the TRAI data.
Idea Cellular on the other hand, gained revenue market share in 18 circles (vs. 15 in 1Q) and lost market share in 4 circles (vs. 5 in 1Q). Interestingly, Idea has gained market share in all its 9 new circles, suggesting steady improvement in these circles.
With the recent Tariff Hike, will Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Idea continue to ring their cash registers louder than other operators ? What say ?