GSM wireless operators reported 9.3m (estimate) net-adds in Jun vs. 8.7m in May; our June est. assumes RCOM added 0.4m subs (same as in May) in its ‘existing’ GSM (RTL) circles. Increase in overall net-adds was driven by BSNL (net-adds up 0.6m; 98% mom) and Idea (0.3m;24%). Vodafone’s net-adds (down 6.7%) continue to moderate after hitting a peak in Mar-09. Bharti’s net-adds were unchanged mom.
Aircel crossed the 1m mark for the fourth straight month. The strength in its net-adds is driven by launch in 7 new circles over the last five months. Aircel had a focused launch in Maharashtra circle in the month of June.
Idea reported 1.6m net-adds in June – highest since the January peak of 2.0m. The surge in monthly additions was driven by both new circles (Bihar, Mumbai and TN) and established circles (AP, Gujarat).
At the current rate of net-adds (2.8m in June), Bharti would exceed our Mar-10 Dalal Street forecast (122m) by 5%.
Vodafone India managed to add only 2.37m after hitting a peak of 2.86m in March. Total GSM Mobile Subscriber base stands at 316.21 mn assuming RCom GSM net adds of 0.4 mn. We will update them as other companies report their numbers.
